Empirical investigation of instability and growth dynamics of rice and wheat crops in India

Abstract

This paper addresses the instability and growth dynamics in crop variables (i.e., production, area and yield) of major cereal crops of India viz., rice and wheat. The secondary data pertaining to a period of thirty years from 1994 to 2023 were utilized for the analysis. The concerned period was further splitted into three parts viz., period-I (1994–2008), period-II (2009–2023) and the pooled period, i.e., overall period (1994–2023) for comparative analysis of instability and growth. The analytical methods considered in the study involved log-linear regression, Cuddy–Della Valle (CDV) instability index, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and decomposition analysis. The outcomes of instability analysis revealed that, during the overall period, both rice and wheat witnessed highest instability in terms of production, followed by yield and cropped area. Furthermore, both the crops reported steady growth in production, area, and yield during period-II as compared to that of period-I. Also, during the overall period, the growth rates in production and area of wheat were observed to be slightly high as compared to that of rice. Moreover, the findings of decomposition analysis revealed that output growth in both rice and wheat production in India was primarily driven by the yield effect, contributing 74.13% in rice and 54.08% in wheat. The area effect showed a moderate contribution, accounting for 17.08% in rice and 33.02% in wheat, while the interaction effect contributed the least, with 8.67% in rice and 12.90% in wheat. The results also suggested that improvements in yield played a significant role, rather than area expansion, in enhancing rice and wheat production during the study period. The findings of this study could provide significant insights towards policy formulation strategies for enhancement of rice and wheat production for meeting global nutritional security through sustainable agricultural practices.